🌎 It's Murad's World

This week’s summary:

1. Murad takes center stage

2. FTX bankruptcy claims approved

3. Scroll announces their token

4. SOL is facing competition

📊 Market Overview:

Majors continue to consolidate, testing the patience of investors. This week, BTC is up 0.1%, while ETH & SOL are up 1.9% and 1.6%, respectively.

While majors range, memes continue to outperform. Notable names include NEIRO +78.5%, SPX +124%, & BITCOIN +53.6%

Although the macro environment is improving, investors are confused by the lack of follow-through. But, according to Bob Loukas, we are on track to follow previous cycles.

📰 News Spotlight:

1. Murad

Zachxbt doxxed eleven of Murad’s wallets, which contain ~$24M in memecoins.

Notable holdings:

• SPX - $17M

• GIGA - $3M

• RETARDIO - $1M

• POPCAT - $750K

Does this cross a line? For me, it’s fair game. These addresses were funded from one primary address, with little effort to conceal anything. Crypto is criticized for its lack of disclosures, so having transparency on Murad’s shill spree is needed.

What’s impressive is Murad held this trade to 8 figures in profit. Yes, given liquidity conditions, he would be lucky to get 20% of the current value out of it, but it's still impressive. Most would've sold a long time ago, but he remains diamond-handed.

His only choice is to shill his reality into existence.

As Elon Musk said, "The most entertaining outcome is the most likely."

2. FTX

The FTX bankruptcy claims have been approved by a judge, clearing the way for potentially billions to enter crypto in the next few months.

K33 research estimates out of the $15B in claims, $7B has either already been claimed or is ineligible, leaving ~$8B as potential money that could enter the market. Will that $8B want to enter crypto after being burned by FTX? Likely not, but if 30% re-enters as K33 estimates, that is ~$2.4B.

I expect the number to be greater than $2.4B. For example, when the US government announces they're selling $1B in BTC, this amount gets amplified by traders looking to front-run the sale. So a $1B sale turns into a $3B sale.

With FTX claims, we could have the opposite effect where buyers want to front-run this money, hitting the market. Claims are scheduled to be in customers' hands in early December.

3. Scroll

Scroll announced their airdrop and token launch through Binance Launchpad. Farming will occur Oct 9th - 11th, with pre-trading starting on the 11th. The token launch date and claim for airdrop participants will be Oct 22nd.

Stats & Distribution:

• 1B Total Supply

• Binance Launchpad Allo - 5.5%

• Initial Circulating Supply - 19%

• Airdrop #1 - 7%

5.5% for Binance is a hefty fee, especially considering airdrop recipients only get 7% for a year+ of work. As detailed in Arthur’s latest essay, tokens that launch on Binance have performed poorly.

Scroll, unfortunately, is a project that people only cared about for farming. Since they have found zero product market fit, they must use a CEX as exit liquidity for themselves and their investors.

I expect this to perform like most airdrops - down only. The market has grown accustomed to valuing VC-backed L2s (STRK, ZK, MODE).

Retail will not touch this.

Binance Launchpad Annoucement

4. Polymarket

Trump took a convincing lead over Kamala in prediction markets. While this buoyed the spirits of crypto participants, prices have yet to react. The market still wants to wait until the election is over before making any significant movements.

I predict that Polymarket will drop a token before the end of the year. 80% of activity on any given day is election-related, and once this market expires, there is a considerable risk.

Polymarket currently has the attention of everyone. It is regularly posted on CNN and mainstream media. Elon and Trump share screenshots of Polymarket odds. The CFTC cleared the right to bet on these markets. It will be wise for Polymarket to seize this momentum.

🔎 Onchain

Over the past month, 27% or 29M of SOL’s $107M outflows went to SUI. I believe SOL’s lead will start getting eaten way from competing L1s, and SUI has been the benefactor for this. We still have high-profile L1 launches like Berachain, Monad, etc, so this trend will continue

BASE TVL is exploding: $1.4B → $2.3B in a month.

The biggest beneficiary of this has been Aerodrome. Their current TVL is $1.2B, a 21% increase in the last 30 days. The coin is up 115% in the past 30 days, and ~48x in the past year.

🤑 Notable Raises

• Layer - $6M Seed. Sector: Infra. Lead investor is 1kx. Notable investors include Arrington Capital & Fabric Ventures.

• Nodepay - Undisclosed. Sector: Infra. Notable investors include Jump & Animoca Brands.

• Meshmap - $4M. Sector: DePin. Notable investors include a16z CSX & GSR.

• Gunzilla Games - $6M. Sector: Gaming. Lead investor is Delphi Ventures.

• AminoChain - $5M Seed. Sector: DeSci. Lead Investor is a16z crypto.

👊 Quick Hits

• Eigenlayer: Blames insider dump on email compromise

• Scroll: Announces airdrop. Claim will go live on October 22nd.

• Uniswap: Introduces “Unichain” its appchain designed for DeFi.

• Crypto.com: Receives Wells notice from the SEC

• Arthur Hayes: latest essay PvP, details how the altcoin market is fleecing retail

• FBI: Created its own cryptocurrency, NexFundAI, to catch market manipulation. Four firms were charged with fraud as a result.

• SEC Chairman: Dan Gallagher is rumored to replace Gary Gensler as SEC Chairman

• HBO: Documentary alleges Peter Todd (lol) as Satoshi

• UAE: Eliminates all taxes on crypto transactions

🫡 Meme of the week

Sad but true

See you next week,

Mid-Curve Team

The Mid-Curve newsletter is intended purely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. We encourage all our readers to conduct their own research or seek advice from a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Please note that members of the Mid-Curve team may hold positions in some of the investments discussed in our newsletter.