🔮 2024 Predictions

Week in Review:

• All eyes are on the ETF. The SEC is set to decide on the Ark Invest and 21Shares' spot bitcoin ETF by January 10, with a final update deadline for bitcoin ETF filings set for December 29—key challenges left to answer are final agreements with authorized participants and language around cash-only creations.

• Barry Silbert and Mark Murphy stepped down from Grayscale Investments' board as the firm seeks SEC approval to convert its Bitcoin Trust into a spot Bitcoin ETF. DCG's CFO Mark Shifke will replace Silbert as Grayscale's board chairman, with new members Matt Kummell and Edward McGee also joining the board.

• Vitalik proposed cutting the number of PoS validators from 1.7M to 8,192 despite concerns about security. This would reduce complexity, making the system more accessible and easier to transition to quantum resistance, with an estimated attack cost of 1-2 million ETH. Developer Micah Zoltu raised concerns that such an attack cost might not be enough to deter state-level actors.

The beginning of 2024 is upon us which means prediction szn is upon us. Prepare to be flooded with prediction articles in the next week. I am a permabull at heart, which is reflected in how I believe the next year will play out. With that, here are my 2024 predictions:

BTC

BTC to $80K.

I'm a closet cycle-maxi, so this is a big statement from me. My prediction suggests BTC is breaking its ATH a year earlier than in a typical crypto cycle.

Why?

Halvening + ETF + Election + Macro

Is enough to get us there. I have considered the bearish case, but after considering the the bullish tailwinds I cannot be swayed.

ETH

ETH to $5K

After starting 2023 as the consensus trade, ETH faces a narrative problem. The good news is narrative problems are short-term problems. With EIP-4844 & an ETH ETF potentially on the horizon, the market realizes ETH’s value again. While sentiment has been low in the Q4 alt L1 rotation, it won’t last. 2024 will be about ETH.

SOL

The biggest loser in 2022 is the biggest winner in 2023. It’s been the darling of the Q4 alt L1 rotation. SOL is less than 160% of ATH and with the SOL/ETH ratio looking as good as it does, it's not a stretch to see it break this. I am a firm believer it will NOT flip ETH, but I do believe it becomes solidified in the top 3.

DeFi

DeFi has a resurgence powered by ETH & Eigenlayer. Eigenlayer hype has reached a fever pitch, and they are aligned solely to ETH. Eigen DA & restaking leads to experiments in tokenomics, incentives, & new financial primitives that excite people about ETH again.

DeFi Szn 2.0

DePin

This consistently overlooked narrative takes off. Crypto is always in need of non-speculative use cases, and DePin provides that. Some interesting projects include HONEY, RNDR, POKT, & FIL, but there are many others. Retail will begin to enter crypto in 2024. The passive income meme + easy to grok uses cases (HONEY - get paid to drive) resonates well with that crowd.

Gaming

After years of account abstraction, scalability, and technical breakthroughs, gaming has its moment. Whether an individual game or a money-making opportunity, normies are drawn to this sector. AVAX, BEAM, & IMX are positioned best for either scenario

NFTs

Another year of building + patience. Pockets of bullishness but no sustained bull trend. The death of 10K PFPs is exaggerated. We should get another bull, but it will look different. We need more primitives like xNFTs & new developments for a sustained rally.

Conclusion

With ETFs, crypto becomes solidified in the eyes of normies. Giving Wall Street an incentive to pump our bags leads to a glorious year. But, it will not be up only. Like any bull market, there will be genuine scares and painful corrections along the way. Strap in.

🤑 Notable Raises

• Medallion - $13.7M series A. Sector: Music/SociaFi. Lead investors were Dragonfly & Faction. Notable investors include Coinbase & The Chernin Group

• Wynd Network - $3.5M seed raise. Sector: SocialFi. Lead investors were Polychain & Tribe. Notable investors include Bitscale & Big Brain Holdings

• Dora Factory - Undisclosed. Sector: Governance. Lead investor were Dao5 & Whampoa Digital

• Frame - Undisclosed. Sector: NFT. Lead by Electric Capital. Wide participation from notable Crypto Twitter accounts.

• NFT Perp - $3M. Sector: NFT. Lead investor was 1(k)x. Notable investors include Maven 11 & Mechanism Capital

• Barnbridge: Settled with the SEC to pay a $1.7M for offering unregistered securities.

• Render: Migrated to Solana & implemented a new Burn + Mint mechanism

• Zach XBT: renowned security investigator has left Twitter again

• BEAM: Latest metrics on the $MC to $BEAM token migration. Deadline has been extended Oct 26th, 2024.

• VC Funding: Renowned VCs - Coinbase, Galaxy, Multicoin, & Polygon give their opinions on the 2024 funding landscape.

• zkEVM: Expert Alex Connolly gives his overview of the zkEVM landscape

🫡 Chart of the Week

Zoomers doing tiktoks on crypto cycles. Top sign or hopium?

See you next week,

Mid-Curve Team

The Mid-Curve newsletter is intended purely for educational and informational purposes and should not be construed as financial advice. We encourage all our readers to conduct their own research or seek advice from a certified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Please note that members of the Mid-Curve team may hold positions in some of the investments discussed in our newsletter.